April 10, 2013

Are the MB going to fall soon?

As a socially liberal person, my biggest fear was that the Muslim Brotherhood would succeed in gaining popularity on the ground which they will later on use as a basis to limit freedoms and abolish democracy. I thought that they would in the first 100 days take a number of populous decisions designed only to increase their approval and give them the necessary grounds. After those first 3 months, I realized that the MB were somewhere else altogether. It became obvious to me that Morsi put little or no weight on his popularity. The MB were only interested in gaining control of the state, even at the expense of their approval ratings. It is pretty much the same strategy they’ve always used, a series of quick actions without a global plan. They move from stage to the next and then improvise. So far, it seems to have worked for them but can they sustain this strategy for long?

Many people would like to think that the MB will eventually crash. But I think that there might be another scenario.The first scenario, which predicts that MB will fall in the near future, is based on the following assumptions: